不要输给时间，track交易策略【20190313】

(发布时间：2019-03-13)

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回撤交易是一种确认入场的方式，K线突破交易是趋势动能交易，这两者结合在一起是一个相互的补充。例如，本周的欧元、黄金我们的公开策略全都是倾向于回撤买入，但是行情并没有给到我们想要的低多位置，那么要想参与到这波上涨行情你就只能利用K线突破来做趋势动能交易了。这样就可以捕捉到不给你回撤的行情。

真真假假，虚虚实实，经典案例永远是过年谁还不吃顿饺子，你把每一个平常的交易日平稳度过才能等到那经典案例的来临，或许我们从来不缺少有效的方法，但我们一定缺少耐心和连续打击后的信心。

我们总是看到几次成功认为这个方法无所不能，看到连续几次失败或者是你的风险没把握好导致的爆仓，恼羞成怒对所学方法一不管用来定义。

我们总是随时随地看到一些机会就想去做，我们总是想赚钱还不愿意承担太大的风险且又不能等待，或许是方法不好，或许是你没有理解透彻，也可能我们最后都输给了时间，错过了节奏。

微观K线分析，市场逻辑把握，（9800元加入导师每晚8点独家课程解析，咨询：18501674300）

今日解盘：

</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">以下分析均出自<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)独家提供的技术指标，指标原理是根据<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)全球零售客户的持仓、挂单情况编制而成，在公众号</strong></span></strong>后台输入：“oanda”，即可查看使用说明。</span></strong></span></strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">oanda实盘客户均可免费使用该指标。</strong></span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">XAUUSD：</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">从下图可以清楚的看出黄金走势：1小时级别下跌后矩形整理，向上突破后多头发力走出一段行情，前日回踩矩形上边界，确认突破有效，昨日持续上涨。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="" data-backh="238" data-backw="556" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/YzEXLBOo5nDWST8r84Kd3MzJmzhB0CPicKQoUWXTmVKZoDH5rtvu75FyXh1sNrlE8jM1buFOddsQ59ViaWUnxqvA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.427972027972028" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/6090662a876901a9408eaccd0a117d62-7553db46ea24e7e357b974b284026e93.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2860" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.4310706787963611" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/6090662a876901a9408eaccd0a117d62-095f95055d9b181fb8e6e1b56efe9a3a.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2858" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="556" data-backh="240" data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/YzEXLBOo5nA1FAk7mx89TTdlfbRKPmY0XRxVksGFjq7vhpANdia2GCZPicgQUnMFpoaZmu2Ad7GOBBfJabXPSDkQ/640?wx_fmt=png" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">可以看到零售客户在这里的多空持仓处于（多头：69.1%，空头：30.9%），大量客户选择1309卖出，1286买入。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="" data-backh="237" data-backw="556" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/YzEXLBOo5nDWST8r84Kd3MzJmzhB0CPicmIa5v4QyicUYYPzFzfI0ItVicG3KfT1vn4XkFIKszyyvc1AiaiapTGaibBQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.42536790469516467" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/6090662a876901a9408eaccd0a117d62-6be4209852f09eac8de35c23eaa9bc8d.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2854" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.13_XAUUSD_挂单情况</strong></span><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">从持仓情况看：大量买入仓位在1296.5/1302，大量卖出仓位在1282。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.4241788958770091" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/6090662a876901a9408eaccd0a117d62-1b35f1077ba3db72f7672da1625e5fe3.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2862" style="" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.13_XAUUSD_持仓情况</strong><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">关于该持仓、挂单指标的使用心得：</span></strong><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.该指标的编制方式很独特，因为它让我们了解到更多关于行情的细节，一般意义上，散户是看不到外汇市场的持仓分布情况的，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)</strong>愿意将经纪商掌握的该数据和散户分享，十分难度，为OANDA(安达)点赞。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.该指标是每5min刷新一次，可以及时、动态地反映出价格变化背后的秘密，具有极高的研究探讨价值。可惜本文只能做静态讲解，不能全面其精髓。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.该指标的使用也可以参考股市里的“筹码分布”概念。熟悉“筹码分布”，你也会对该指标使用得心应手。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.所谓筹码峰的应用，有单峰、双峰等形态，单峰形态说明筹码集中，容易走出单边行情，而双峰形态，则行情往往在双峰之间运行。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.观察筹码的移动过程，一定程度上可以推算行情运行的距离，当获利盘/套牢盘大幅减少，行情可能快反转，即便不反转也会转入盘整。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.注意挂单/持仓图中单筹码集中的价格，在这些价格，行情倾向于起到支撑、压力的作用。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">7.注意多空持仓比例的变化，若多头仓位持续加大，严重高于空头，则需谨防一种行情：如再继续下跌，多头止损盘将涌出导致行情极速下跌，往往这种情况之后行情又将缓慢上涨（参考1月3日美日行情）。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上分析仅代表嘉宾/指标观点，不代表外汇交易圈、道恩学院的意见，仅作为交易参考，不作为投资建议。原创不易，希望大家在阅读后顺便点赞，以示鼓励！坚持是一种信仰，专注是一种态度！</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-variant-ligatures: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-position: normal;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-alternates: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: center;widows: 1;font-family: 微软雅黑;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong 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