track黄金外汇原油交易策略【20190401】

(发布时间：2019-04-02)

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2019第一季度，8小时动能突破交易统计结果

欧元，从上图看1-3月份出现28次交易11次止损17次盈利，其中1-2月份出现14次交易机会止损5次，3月份出现14次交易出现6次止损。整体这个胜率基本算是及格水平。

英镑：从上图看1-3月份累计出现37次交易机会13次止损24次盈利。其中1-2月份21次机会出现6次止损，3月份16次交易机会出现7次止损，整体来看1-2月份的效果是不错的，3月份的前三周也是非常好只出现了2次止损情况，在3月份的最后一周的5次交易机会中只有一次盈利，拉低了3月份的整体胜率表现。这样的问题出现也说明8小时动能突破交易法，在遇见震荡行情中我们该怎么分析对待和操作我还要去做进一步的思考。

黄金：从上图看1-3月份25次交易机会，6次止损19次盈利，整体成功率比较高。其中1-2月份17次交易出现了5次亏损，3月份8次交易机会，只有一次止损。黄金是相较于货币波动率比较大，所以整体的交易效果成功率也会比较好。

原油：从上图来看，1-3月份原油累计出现24次交易机会，获利18次止损6次，其中1-2月份12次机会止损4次，3月份12次交易机会止损2次。从结果来看效果比较好，尤其是3月份的成功率非常高。原油是一个比黄金的波动率还要大一些的品种，那么达到这样的效果也是可以理解。

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视频分析

</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">以下分析均出自<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)独家提供的技术指标，指标原理是根据<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)全球零售客户的持仓、挂单情况编制而成，在公众号</strong></span></strong>后台输入：“oanda”，即可查看使用说明。</span></strong></span></strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">oanda实盘客户均可免费使用该指标。</strong></span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">XAUUSD：</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">周五副图指标美元强度回落，主图黄金连续上行，突破上方红色压力线后回落。当前处于蓝色支持线，适合做多。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.41579315164220826" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/34b4c09afdfe6f09d0dc37eb6df814ef-c68955a8e890e19bdc5ef150e6bc6552.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2862" style="" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">可以看到零售客户在这里的多空持仓处于（多头：67.4%，空头：32.6%），大量客户选择1320/1310卖出，1288/1299.5买入。</span><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.41964912280701755" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/34b4c09afdfe6f09d0dc37eb6df814ef-0b0c39ab32950cb04338ef9fec166d7c.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2850" style="" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.1_XAUUSD_挂单情况</strong></span><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">从持仓情况看：大量卖出仓位在1290/1287，大量买入仓位在1293.5该位置有较强支撑。日线级别的上行通道跌破后大幅下跌,目前看下跌后的反抽上涨。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.4172510518934081" data-s="300,640" src="http://pk.langyabang.com//wx_pic/34b4c09afdfe6f09d0dc37eb6df814ef-d716f698ec4dd245c91f80a48e99fa4f.jpg" data-type="png" data-w="2852" style="" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.1_XAUUSD_持仓情况</strong><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 41, 65);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">关于该持仓、挂单指标的使用心得：</span></strong><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.该指标的编制方式很独特，因为它让我们了解到更多关于行情的细节，一般意义上，散户是看不到外汇市场的持仓分布情况的，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">OANDA(安达)</strong>愿意将经纪商掌握的该数据和散户分享，十分难度，为OANDA(安达)点赞。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.该指标是每5min刷新一次，可以及时、动态地反映出价格变化背后的秘密，具有极高的研究探讨价值。可惜本文只能做静态讲解，不能全面其精髓。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.该指标的使用也可以参考股市里的“筹码分布”概念。熟悉“筹码分布”，你也会对该指标使用得心应手。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.所谓筹码峰的应用，有单峰、双峰等形态，单峰形态说明筹码集中，容易走出单边行情，而双峰形态，则行情往往在双峰之间运行。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.观察筹码的移动过程，一定程度上可以推算行情运行的距离，当获利盘/套牢盘大幅减少，行情可能快反转，即便不反转也会转入盘整。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.注意挂单/持仓图中单筹码集中的价格，在这些价格，行情倾向于起到支撑、压力的作用。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">7.注意多空持仓比例的变化，若多头仓位持续加大，严重高于空头，则需谨防一种行情：如再继续下跌，多头止损盘将涌出导致行情极速下跌，往往这种情况之后行情又将缓慢上涨（参考1月3日美日行情）。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;white-space: normal;widows: 2;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-variant-ligatures: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上分析仅代表嘉宾/指标观点，不代表外汇交易圈、道恩学院的意见，仅作为交易参考，不作为投资建议。原创不易，希望大家在阅读后顺便点赞，以示鼓励！坚持是一种信仰，专注是一种态度！</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-variant-ligatures: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-position: normal;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-alternates: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: center;widows: 1;font-family: 微软雅黑;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: 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